Iran’s strategy
It has been alleged that US special forces are in Iran, marking bombing sites. If the rumors are true (they are certainly believable), based on past US military actions, one would estimate an invasion in about 6-18 months. What options does one have if one were the ruler of Iran? Stop developing nukes? Of course not — US invaded Iraq even though Saddam’s WMD’s expired years earlier. Build up the conventional army? It’s doubtful that Iran will be able to do much to stop the US armed forces, especially since they now have actual combat experience. Ask allies? Iran has none — and it’s surrounded by countries hostile to it and friendly to the US.
The solution is to look for US weaknesses; and the only one I can see is manpower. 100 000 US soldiers hold Iraq only with difficulty. Iran has three times the land area and almost three times the population of Iraq. I would guess that 200 000 troops for its occupation is about the minimum. However, putting 3-400 000 US soldiers in an active war zone would cause financial and political difficulties for the US government. Thus, the US presumably wants to build up a native Iraqi security force to deal with the Iraqi insurgency, and use the freed up US forces for the next invasion. Consequently, Iran’s only hope is to aid the Iraqi insurgency so that Iraqi security forces won’t be able to contain it without the help of American soldiers. Much as the Shia mullahs may despise the Sunni radicals and die-hard Baathists of Iraq, if they can tie up a hundred thousand US troops in a guerilla morass for the next few years, and if the next American president is not as hard-line as Mr. Bush, Iran has a hope of survival as an independent nation.
Of course, Iran’s help for the Iraqi insurgents will be discovered. Of course, it will be presented as a casus belli. But does it matter if you give your enemy reasons to invade you when he is planning to invade you anyway?
I expect that over the next few months, Iraqi insurgents will start receiving increasingly better training and equipment, thanks to their Eastern neighbors.